The Joint Typhoon Warning Centre; a division of the United States Department of Defense. It is in charge of issuing tropical cyclone alerts for the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It reported that Cyclone Biparjoy accelerated by 40 knots (74 kmph).
With meteorologists forecasting a “mild” monsoon start over Kerala and “weak” advancement beyond the southern peninsula under its influence; Cyclone “Biparjoy” has swiftly strengthened into a strong cyclonic storm. The Arabian Sea is currently experiencing its first storm of the year.
According to a report from the India Meteorological Department (IMD); “Cyclonic storm Biparjoy over east-central and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea intensified into a severe cyclonic storm and lay centered over the same region at 5.30 hours. Approximately 890 km west-southwest of Goa, 1,000 km southwest of Mumbai, 1,070 km south-southwest of Porbandar, and 1,370 km south of Karachi.”
It is anticipated to proceed almost northward. Strengthen into a very severe cyclonic storm, according to the Met office. In the following three days, it would then proceed in a north-northwesterly direction.
The IMD hasn’t yet foreseen any significant effects on nations bordering the Arabian Sea, such as India, Oman, Iran, and Pakistan.
Although meteorologists believe that the system will move tentatively northward. Storms occasionally defy forecasts on their path and strength. The storm has been “rapidly intensifying,” according to forecasting organizations.
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), the U.S. Department of Defense organization in charge of issuing tropical cyclone alerts for the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Cyclone Biparjoy has accelerated by 40 knots (74 kmph) since Tuesday AM.
According to scientists, climate change has caused cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal to increase quickly. It holds their strength for extended periods of time.
The strength, frequency, and duration of cyclonic storms—particularly extremely severe cyclonic storms—increased significantly between 1982 and 2019 in the Arabian Sea; according to research titled “Changing status of tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean.”
“The rise in ocean temperatures and the increasing availability of moisture under global warming are directly related to the increase in cyclone activity in the Arabian Sea. According to Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the Arabian Sea was formerly chilly but is now a heated pool. The IMD had stated on June 6 that the storm is expected to affect the development of the monsoon.
According to a senior IMD scientist, rain would fall on the southern peninsula. As a result of the cyclone and a low-pressure system that is forming in the Bay of Bengal. As the cyclone degenerates, the monsoon will continue its advance beyond the southern peninsula.
The Kerala coast is not receiving adequate precipitation. Since the cloud mass has gathered around this system. Even if the prerequisites for monsoon commencement can be fulfilled in the next two days; Mahesh Palawat, vice president (climate and meteorology), Skymet Weather, predicted that it won’t be a strong start.
The monsoon will stay “weak” when it starts over Kerala until the storm degenerates around June 12, according to him.
“The Arabian Sea’s powerful weather system might impede the deep interior monsoon’s progress. They may cause the monsoon stream to reach coastal areas. But it will be difficult for it to cross the Western Ghats, according to Tuesday’s Skymet Weather report.
On June 1, on average, and with a standard deviation of around seven days; the southwest monsoon arrives over Kerala. Kerala’s monsoon season could start on June 4, according to IMD predictions from mid-May.
With a three-day margin of error, Skymet had forecast that the monsoon will begin over Kerala on June 7.
According to IMD statistics, the timing of monsoon arrival over Kerala has fluctuated greatly over the past 150 years, with the earliest date being May 11, 1918 and the most delayed date being June 18, 1972.
On May 29 of last year, June 3 of 2021, June 1 of 2020, June 8 of 2019, and May 29 of this year, the southeast monsoon came in the southern State. According to research, a monsoon delay over Kerala (MOK) does not always correspond to a monsoon delay over northwest India.
At least across the southern States and Mumbai, a delay in the MOK is typically linked to a delay in the onset. According to scientists, a postponed MOK has little effect on the nation’s seasonal rainfall totals.
The IMD had earlier stated that “India is expected to get normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season, despite the evolving El Nino conditions.”
Rainfall in the northwest of India is predicted to be average to below average. Expected rainfall amounts for the east and northeast, central, and south peninsula range from 94 to 106% of the long-term average of 87 cm.
Rainfall less than 90% of the long-period average is referred to as “deficient.” If it is between 90% and 95% is referred to as “below normal.” And if it is between 105% and 110% is referred to as “above normal,” and precipitation over 100% is referred to as “excess.”
With 52% of the net cultivated area depending on normal rainfall, India’s agricultural landscape is extremely dependent on it. Aside from electricity production nationwide; it is essential for the replenishment of reservoirs that are essential for providing drinking water.
A significant factor in India’s food security and economic stability; rainfed agriculture produces around 40% of the nation’s total food.
